LPL Research Team Releases Annual Outlook for 2024
Annual Outlook report points to a 2024 market and economy that’s more familiar, steady, and reliable, along with a few meaningful shifts
SAN DIEGO, Dec. 12, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- today released Outlook 2024, a report detailing LPL Research’s expectations that the markets will regain balance in the first half of 2024. The report includes insights and analysis of the economy and markets—available to all LPL Financial advisors, institutions, and the public in a .
“Broadly, we expect the sharpened swings in post-pandemic economic and market activity to moderate,” said Marc Zabicki, LPL chief investment officer. “This turning point in market conditions may usher in a mild recession in 2024, but we expect stocks and bonds to perform well. We believe next year’s market tailwinds for stocks and bonds could come from a Federal Reserve that reverses some of the policy tightening we witnessed in 2023.”
Among the key forecasts and topics discussed in the Outlook 2024 report:
- Economy: The economy grew faster than expected in 2023 despite inflation and high interest rates. Unemployment remained historically low, and activity in some places (e.g., homebuilding) even grew. On the flip side, credit card balances increased, student loan payments resumed, and consumers used up their excess savings—setting up conditions for consumer spending to slow and the economy to contract.
- Stock market: Based on LPL Research’s belief that interest rates won’t spike again and that inflation will continue to come down, LPL Research predicts that stocks are entering a phase where the focus will be on interest rate stability. When rates rise, stocks tend to fall in value, so for the stock market it’s potentially good news that future rate increases are not expected.
- Bond market: The 2023 U.S. economy outperformed expectations, placing treasury yields back to levels last seen over a decade ago and more importantly, back to providing income. Plus, with a potential change in interest rates likely coming in 2024, LPL Research believes bonds are attractive again.
- Geopolitics and related investments: With the onset of the Israel-Hamas war in the Middle East, geopolitical concerns have broadened. Regions of volatility can affect markets—not just the stock market, but also the commodities and currencies markets.
- Alternative investments: LPL Research recommends investment strategies that can adapt or have little sensitivity to changing market conditions. Strategies like managed futures and hedge funds can help investors diversify their portfolios, especially those heavily weighted in stocks and bonds.
Zabicki added, “If there was ever a year that confirmed no one knows what the market will bring, 2023 fits the bill. That’s precisely why it’s so important to have a trusted financial professional by your side to help navigate the twists and turns that will inevitably arise.”
Important Disclosures
Please see the LPL Financial Research Outlook 2024 report for additional descriptions and disclosure.
The opinions, statements, and forecasts presented herein are general information only and are not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.
Any forward-looking statements including the economic forecasts may not develop as predicted and are subject to change based on future market and other conditions.
The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 widely held, large-capitalization US stocks. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
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