BoE: on track with Feb important to May hike
- The MPC voted unanimously to keep Bank rate at 0.5%, the stock of gilt purchases at £375bn, and corporate bond purchases at £10bn, as widely expected.- The fiscal news adds 0.1pp to inflation, which offsets GBP strength ahead of the meeting. Brexit progress was welcomed and will be considered in February. Along with the supply-side stock take, Feb-18 is the time to green light a May-18 hike.
- Unemployment and Sterling remain the most important economic variables for the MPC, in my view. Quoted rates indicate whether the intended effect is occurring.
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