BoE: steady hand during calligraphy lesson
- The BoE seems set to announce no change in either Bank rate or QE alongside the August MPR, after extending asset purchases and slowing the pace in June.- A long-overdue return of the formal forecast is likely. The illustrative scenario from May proved too pessimistic, especially on unemployment, but the optimal response will depend more on the shape of recovery than the depth of decline.
- Negative rates were not mentioned at all in the June MPC minutes. I still doubt they would impart stimulus. Any discussion of a fine-tuning cut is only likely to be considered as part of a package associated with a future negative demand shock.
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