BoE: two hyper-activists jump the gun
- The MPC split in Nov-19, with 2 of the 9 MPC members voting for a 25bp rate cut.- Some of the concerns urging the activists to dissent should promptly alleviate as uncertainty subsides, in my view. Even the MPC’s collective assessment contains a slowdown that I expect to be avoided, with hawkish implications for policy.
- Excesses in the forecast were trimmed by GBP appreciation, broadly as expected, but the substantial margin of excess demand is still not easily tolerated. The MPC should draw attention to this domestic strength as rate hike risk returns.
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