BoE: wakey wakey rise and shine
- Soft survey data and an imminent risk of a disorderly Brexit raised the option value of delaying a hike in Feb-19. Resilient real data and the postponement of that risk to at least October diminishes the value of further delay.- Financial markets have reduced their rate expectations despite the good news, which they have not been responding to again. The BoE needs to issue a reminder that it is a data-dependent inflation targeter not a Brexit and Fed follower.
- Accumulating excess inflation and demand do not make a tolerable trade-off as both point to a need for tighter monetary conditions. A still-soft global backdrop limits the extent of tightening necessary without invalidating the direction.
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