Brexit: bimodal forecasts and the BoE
- The UK’s outlook remains bimodal around Brexit, with shifting probabilities driving market pricing. As the BoE assumes a deal, it has now attempted to adjust for the inconsistent assumptions, with a need to raise rates still shown.- I assume the UK leaves the EU without a deal, which would cause a different set of shocks to those the BoE showed in its Aug-19 Inflation Report. This publication also includes my forecasts for both scenarios until end-2021.
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