Brexit: brinkmanship beckons
- Negotiations for the UK and EU’s replacement relationship are still snagged on the same issues identified last year. Rigid terms of reference for the talks have sought compromise on points of principle without any pressure to break the deadlock.- The yearend expiry of transitional arrangements can potentially provide some pressure to break the deadlock. However, building that takes brinkmanship, which the UK government is welcoming with its credible threat to end talks next month.
- I still assume a limited new deal concludes, probably with transitional measures to smooth the introduction of substantial new frictions. Raising the pressure is unsurprising, but focus on the risk could increase that premium, lowering GBP.
Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.