Brexit: compromised deal revealed
- A backstop replacement has been revealed and approved by the European Council after the UK stepped over some redlines of its supporters. Without the DUP’s blessing, the deal is likely to be narrowly rejected by parliament on Saturday.- Acceptance could take the UK smoothly out of the EU on 31 October ahead of an election. Otherwise, an election will probably need to occur first to find support.
- I now see the relative probabilities of a deal, no deal and no Brexit at 55:30:15 (previously 35:50:15). Even with a withdrawal agreement, the risk of no new trade deal will remain but should be far off enough to remove the economic brake.
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