Brexit: going blind without eyelids
- Brexit negotiations have hit an impasse, and with only weeks to resolve it, there is pressure to blink. However, the UK government relies on support from the DUP who have “cut off our eyelidsâ€, and the EU27 sees the greatest threat in conceding.- Resolving the backstop is the key to concluding the withdrawal agreement, and I still expect that to occur. However, the government looks set to wait until after its Party conference closes on 3 October before revealing new concessions.
- Withdrawal will probably occur blind to the future UK-EU27 trading relationship. I expect Theresa May’s replacement as UK Prime Minister to negotiate it during the transition phase, and for a Canada-style trade deal to be the eventual result.
- Failure to conclude the withdrawal agreement would cause a painful disorderly Brexit before the new trade agreement is scrambled together. Tariffs could be temporarily imposed on trade between the UK and EU27, but a dodge is possible.
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