Brexit: no-deal becomes the baseline
- Boris Johnson has demanded the removal of the backstop from any EU withdrawal agreement for it to be accepted. Otherwise, he intends to leave without a deal.- Although the backstop is not a legal necessity, the political pressures in Ireland and the EU make its removal unlikely. A no-deal Brexit now becomes my baseline.
- Parliament may vote to trigger a general election between 4 and 13 September, unless suspended or a deal remains possible. I now subjectively see the relative probabilities of a deal, no deal, and no Brexit at 35:45:20 (45:40:15 before).
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