Brexit: no deal risk reaches record highs
- The European Council has agreed on a package of presidents not personally invested in the current Brexit deal. That likely leaves a little room for a last-ditch accommodation, but the new UK Prime Minister may seek far too much too quickly.- Europhile MPs still hope they can block leaving with no deal, but there is little power to prevent it, especially if the PM is intent on that course. The European Council must unanimously approve any extension in agreement with the UK.
- No deal risk is concentrating on 31 October, and my subjective assessment has risen 10pp to put the relative probability of a deal, no deal and no Brexit at 45:40:15 (from 50:30:20 on 23 May). It could occur constructively or destructively.
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