Brexit: no-deal tariffs are no big deal
- The UK government intends to cut its standard (MFN) tariff schedule if it leaves the EU without a deal. Associated taxes on UK-EU27 trade would be broadly equal. Failure to legislate for this would cause tariff payments to triple.- The average effective tariff rate proposed on imports from the EU27 is half that likely to apply on exports. A 1.5% tariff on EU27 trade is worth about 0.2% on UK consumer prices, consistent with my baseline assumption for a no-deal Brexit.
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