Brexit: no soft-touch extension
- The European Council will consider the UK’s latest request for an extension at its 10 April meeting. It is not a soft touch seeking to reward failure, so I expect an extension to be longer and conditional on passing a substantive vote soon.- Fundamental market-relevant factors have changed little over the past fortnight, in my view, despite all the domestic political noise. I still subjectively see the routes and relative probabilities of a deal, no deal, and no Brexit at 45:35:20.
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