Brexit: proposals break political lines for a deal
- The UK has released its revised proposals for the backstop, which would potentially introduce new border frictions between Northern Ireland and both the UK and Ireland. There is probably a small majority for this in the UK parliament.- Customs frictions within the Island of Ireland, among other issues, breach the EU’s demands for any deal. A no-deal Brexit would be much worse economically, but the Irish government does not want to own the problems by agreeing to them.
- Despite the noise from constitutional and legal moves in September, I continue to see the relative probabilities of a deal, no deal and no Brexit as 25:55:20. The risk of a Brexit delay has risen but is far from the inevitability often assumed.
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