Brexit: restacking negotiation teams
- Failure to agree on a compromise deal with the Labour leadership has left the Conservatives with a Withdrawal Bill bleeding more support than it is gaining, and the Prime Minister seems set to resign soon.- A Eurosceptic replacement Leader, like Boris Johnson, still seems most likely, but they will have to agree on withdrawal and future trading arrangements. I now see the probability of a deal, no deal and no Brexit at 50:30:20 (55:25:20 before).
- New European leadership is unlikely to upend the current deal but could bring some flexibility following the political breaks. A compromise and more time to consider it or leave with no deal looks like the way forward, in my view.
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