Brexit risk still on vacation
- As MPs return from their Easter holidays, the politics are not yet conducive for a breakthrough. Neither a cross-party deal nor Conservative leadership contest is attractive ahead of the elections, so political posturing is more noise than news.- The EU’s tolerance for UK political paralysis meant the extension until October lacked high-pressure conditionality. I now see the risk of a disorderly Brexit reduced back to 25%, with the probabilities of a deal and no Brexit at 55% and 20%.
- The postponement of the disorderly Brexit risk until at least October has reopened a window for the BoE to raise Bank rate, in my view. The MPC needs to remind markets that the real economic data have remained robust and matter.
Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.