Brexit: Schrodinger’s cat in Pandora’s box
- Negotiations about a backstop replacement have intensified following unspecified reassurances from the UK yesterday. Compromise may lie with a convoluted customs partnership and a softer veto for the DUP.- Without knowledge of the new proposal and how reaction functions may have changed, there is no objective basis for making substantial call changes. Like Schrodinger’s cat, the deal is both alive and dead until we can peak at it.
- Reaching a deal does not mean the UK leaves the EU with a withdrawal agreement. Revealing the deal unleashes all its perceived sins. Nonetheless, I raise the relative probability of a deal, no deal and no Brexit to 35:50:15 (from 25:55:20).
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