Brexit: sufficient to diminish disorderly risk
- The EU Commission now believes “sufficient progress†has been made in the Brexit negotiations for discussion of the transitional arrangements and framework for the eventual trade deal to begin.- Progress had been challenged by poor communication, most recently around Northern Ireland. The devolved administration has gained a partial veto over regulatory divergence in the limited areas of the Good Friday agreement.
- I expect transition negotiations to be ongoing during Q1, but businesses can take comfort from the likelihood of a status quo arrangement until end-2020. With the disorderly tail risk diminished further, the BoE hiking cycle has a clearer road.
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