Covid-19: the self-inflicted recession
- Governments are increasingly succumbing to populist pressures and locking down their economies. These restrictions now seem set to drive a UK recession that is effectively self-inflicted rather than reflecting the usual unwinding of excesses.- Without large imbalances to work off, the coming recession’s longevity should be unusually short and sharp. However, failure to find an adequate vaccine could drag out the pain to a more traditional length.
- Financial market illiquidity has compounded the temporary downside in Sterling, but further monetary stimulus seems likely. On 26 March, I expect a 15bp rate cut to 0.1% and £40bn of gilt-focused QE between then and the August MPC decisions.
Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.