EA: re-intensifying labour market pains
The notionally bullish trend decline in the euro area unemployment rate looks to be biased by Italy’s extended policy to ban dismissals and Eurostat extrapolating summer improvement. Renewed activity restrictions already appear to have been raising the UR.A belated rise in unemployment is anyway inevitable as extended furlough schemes end and bankruptcies rise from their artificial extremely depressed levels.
Current output levels imply unemployment rises by 2-3pp for Germany, France, and Italy, or almost 5.5pp for Spain. However, some pain will permanently hit productivity.
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