Heteronomics - FLASH: brisk UK GDP trend remains a friend in 4Q17

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Heteronomics

Philip Rush

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FLASH: brisk UK GDP trend remains a friend in 4Q17

- GDP growth was 0.1pp stronger than expected in Q4 at 0.5% q-o-q, because of slightly better services activity and an implicit surge or revision to construction.
- The post-referendum trend of 0.15% m-o-m is being stretched slightly to the upside as December was depressed by a 20% decline in oil and gas extraction. Nominal GVA had its best quarter since mid-16. Did someone say slowdown?!

26/01/2018 2 EN

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Heteronomics

Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.

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Analysts

Philip Rush

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Philip Rush

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Riksbank: hopeful for vaccine dividend

- The Riksbank has announced no monetary policy changes, as expected. However, a relatively hawkish tone is created by GDP growth upgrades. We see downside risk to the more resilient global picture, which relies on a vaccination dividend. - Any sense that the vaccination rollout is delayed or offers limited protection to new and more virulent strains of Covid19 will return us to a scenario where the need for monetary policy stimuli increases.

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BoE: preparing policy like a Scout

- The BoE MPC voted unanimously in favour of no policy changes. Gilt purchases will continue at the same pace with a bias to slow later. Bank rate remains at 0.1%. Banks are instructed to prepare systems for a temporary negative rate environment. - Disagreement centred on whether instructing banks to rectify the operational hurdles to negative rates could occur without markets misconstruing it as an intent to deliver a cut. The tool will not be ready for at least six-months and remains unlikely even later. - A cut would need to be operationally possible, with stimulus needed and no better way ...

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February 4, 2021 February 4, 2021 3 EN

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Italy: Dragging in Draghi

- Political turmoil had returned to Italy, with the President scrambling to find an agreeable new Prime Minister. A resolution in the form of a technocratic government led by former ECB President Mario Draghi now looks set to be formally agreed. - The democratic deficit of another technocratic leader is likely to strengthen populist pressures. However, the postponement of election risk is a relief to markets, especially with such a well-respected figure being invited to the helm.

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February 3, 2021 February 3, 2021 2 EN

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FLASH: brisk UK GDP trend remains a friend in 4Q17

Riksbank: hopeful for vaccine dividend

BoE: preparing policy like a Scout

Italy: Dragging in Draghi

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