FLASH: disinflationary UK surprise in Sep-18
- UK inflation disappointed almost all expectations, including my below consensus ones, by slowing to 2.4% on the CPI and 3.3% on the RPI in September. Clothing was mostly responsible again, but food prices were also soft.- Most of the shock doesn’t carry into my October forecast, and my year-end projections are slightly higher than last week. I expect a slight rise in October before grinding toward a still above-target low in Jan-19.
- Brisk domestic price and wage inflation continue to support the rate hiking cycle, but guidance on that is likely to be limited until the increasingly tense negotiations on EU withdrawal conclude.
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