FLASH: GDP story rewrite helps Aug-18 hike
- Q1 GDP growth was revised up to 0.2% q-o-q in the ONS’s third estimate, contrary to almost all forecasts. Construction continued its pattern of persistent upside revisions and now subtracts only 5bp from GDP growth, 25% of what it initially did.- The new monthly profile for construction isn’t yet known, but pencilling in the usual pattern raises my Q2 GDP forecast back to 0.4% q-o-q. With concerns about the consumer abated too, I still expect the MPC to raise Bank rate again in August.
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