FLASH: Haldane joins the hawkish dissent
- The BoE MPC left monetary policy unchanged in June, but Andy Haldane joined Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty in dissenting for an immediate rate hike. All economists in the Consensus except me had forecast an unchanged vote split.- I continue to expect the next rate hike in August, although it remains dependent on the data. The main dovish data risk remaining is in the April index of services on 29 June, in my view.
- The exit strategy was also discussed, with reinvestments now expected to cease once Bank rate reaches 1.5%. The 50bp reduction is a result of the effective lower bound seeming lower than it did in Nov-15.
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