Report
Philip Rush
EUR 57.00 For Business Accounts Only

FLASH: tracking 0.36% UK GDP growth in 18Q1

- The first fall in manufacturing output since Mar-17 weighed on IP in Feb-18, but I continue to expect IP growth of 0.7% q-o-q in Q1.
- Another fall in construction output was disappointing, but upward revisions to each of the previous 8-months remind of the systematic downward bias. A 3% fall in Q1 now seems likely, which is 1pp worse than I previously assumed.
- The non-services sectors now subtract 9bp from my Q1 GDP forecast, which is tracking 0.36% q-o-q. The BoE assumed 0.3% in March ahead of a likely May hike.
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Heteronomics
Heteronomics

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Philip Rush

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