FLASH: UK Car Sales Recovering; Stress Would Be Nonlinear
- Gloomy headlines about new car registrations falling 9.3% y-o-y overstate current weakness. Sales were stricken by tax changes but have been recovering since. Sales growth in Q3 is unusually high with an even larger swing to support GDP growth.
- Scrappage schemes and attractive credit policies are also helping, albeit with some financial risks. Stress tests mostly miss the risks rising in this sector, though, with losses set to increase sharply beyond the 10% price fall under consideration.
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