FLASH: UK consumer beats doubters in May-18
- Retail sales trounced expectations again in May by surging 1.3% to well above its trend. Negative payback is likely, but other measures support the strong signal.- Confidence and consumer credit data have also rebounded recently. My tracking estimate of Q2 GDP growth is now at 0.34% q-o-q.
- Concerns about the health of the consumer appear increasingly misplaced. Evidence of this should encourage the BoE to hike again in August.
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