FLASH: UK consumer hits new highs in Jul-18
- Retail sales exceeded consensus expectations of modest growth (0.2%) by more than recovering June’s dip through its growth of 0.7% m-o-m. This outcome is also 0.2pp above what was incorporated into my GDP tracking estimate.- Positive payback in Julys is typical, but the stretching of sales above their brisk trend looks unsustainably, in my view. I expect a slight fall in August, consistent with the 2001 pattern, downturn in the weather, and modesty of other surveys.
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