FLASH: UK energy offsets late-2Q18 manu’ bounce
- The UK’s manufacturing PMI held broadly stable at 54.4 in Jun-18. Euro area weakness has removed the survey’s froth and caused convergence back to the UK.- Amid acute April weakness in the ONS data, manufacturing output is likely to be far weaker in Q2 than either the PMI or CBI surveys suggest, even assuming a rebound in May. Seasonal adjustment issues are probably partly to blame.
- Warm weather continues to contract energy flows on the national grid. Falls in oil and gas extraction in May will compound the depressing effect in May and probably cancel out the support of manufacturing’s rebound in the release on 10 July.
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