FLASH: UK GDP carry-over supporting 3Q18
- Monthly GDP increased by a high 0.1% m-o-m in June, which continues the 0.15% m-o-m trend pace at its slightly lower level after the 1Q18 disruption.- Services output was less supportive than expected in Q2, but industry offset this disappointment to leave overall GDP up 0.4% q-o-q.
- The statistical carry-over effect is much stronger into Q3 and energy is set to rebound, so my 0.4% q-o-q forecast for 3Q18 is currently tracking on the high side.
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