FLASH: UK GDP growth bettered with VAT data
- The ONS’s third estimate of Q3 GDP growth remained at 0.4% q-o-q, as expected. Annual growth was revised up by 0.2pp amid the supportive first use of VAT data.- Monthly GDP is back in line with its post-referendum trend of 0.14% m-o-m. I am still tracking Q4 GDP growth of 0.4% q-o-q. Historical surprises suggest a risk that Q1 growth is slightly weaker, but I maintain my forecast for stable growth.
- The current account deficit narrowed by £3bn to £22.8bn amid a reduced trade deficit and slightly less current transfers to the EU.
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