FLASH: UK GDP resurgence raises 1Q19 forecast
- UK monthly GDP exceeded all expectations by surging 0.5% m-o-m in Jan-19. Construction rebounded by even more than I expected, as did manufacturing, while services remained resilient relative to the biased surveys.- The level of GDP is already 0.35% above the 4Q18 average, so I raise my forecast for 1Q19 by 0.1pp to 0.4% q-o-q. The BoE’s 0.2% forecast is looking woefully gloomy, although Brexit remains critical to the policy outlook.
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