FLASH: UK GDP still rebounding toward 0.4% in Q2
- Monthly GDP increased by 0.3% m-o-m in May, as expected. GDP remains on track to grow 0.4% q-o-q in Q2, and the BoE shouldn’t need the extra data before hiking.- Service sector output also increased by 0.3% and is rebounding unusually consistent with its PMI. The manufacturing data are surprisingly far short of the PMI, though, and the drag I forecast from energy extraction and utilities weighed on IP in May.
- The contribution from IP is set to be slightly weaker than I expected but the surge in construction output has more than offset that. Fixes to the ONS’s methodology should make it less liable to revisions, which had been persistently positive.
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