FLASH: UK industry builds better base for Q3
- UK industrial data were mixed in June, with construction weaker but energy stronger than the ONS had pencilled into its Q2 GDP estimate. After revisions, the news is worth only -1bp to GDP growth.
- The statistical carry over to Q3 from industry is 1pp better than for Q2, adding 15bp. That supports my bullish 0.4% q-o-q GDP forecast, but the downward trend in construction and bad external trade data mean concerns cannot be banished.
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