FLASH: UK industry hacks GDP and August hike risk
- UK industrial data broadly disappointed the consensus for May, and are now on track to subtract 15bp from Q2 GDP growth, including 10bp from construction. My tracking estimate has fallen by 0.1pp to a very low3% q-o-q.
- Imports of semi-manufactured goods point to better times ahead, even while contributing to the widening external deficit again in May.
- With Q2 GDP growth looking unlikely to be a material improvement on the disappointingly soft Q1 performance, there is a good reason for the BoE not to hike immediately. I continue to expect a delay until May-18.
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