FLASH: UK industry mixed but more supportive
- Industrial data were mixed again in July, with manufacturing strong and the trade balance less bad, but energy and especially construction weighed heavily.
- For my forecast, IP strength dominates slightly owing to its higher weight in GDP. Maintaining July’s output level for the rest of the quarter would mean IP contributing 9bp to Q3 GDP growth and construction subtracting 7bp.
- Output data are tracking GDP growth nearer to 0.6% q-o-q than my already bullish 0.4% baseline, and the risks from construction have fallen with its normalisation.
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