FLASH: UK industry supports 0.4% Q3 GDP growth
- UK industrial output data were broadly better in August, with manufacturing and construction both stronger than expected. Gas data was weaker than the National Grid flows but may yet be revised. Recent revisions were anyway supportive.
- External trade was the weak patch amid a surge in imports. Some correction from semi-manufactured good and fuel imports is possible, but I continue to doubt net trade’s ability to raise GDP growth.
- Output data have settled down to track Q3 GDP growth of 0.4% q-o-q, which is consistent with my baseline forecast. The industrial sectors are contributing 0.1pp to this estimate, while services provide the other 0.3pp.
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