FLASH: UK jobs and pay both beat for a change
• The LFS unemployment rate declined another tenth to 4.4%, contrary to the consensus, but in line with my forecast again. It is now below the BoE’s estimate of the NAIRU, with a risk of further falls ahead.
• Pay growth also improved, with average weekly earnings ex-bonuses now growing by 2.1% y-o-y 3mma. The private sector has been recovering since March and is imparting an unusually strong quarterly impulse.
• Low unemployment makes the MPC’s trade-off more uncomfortable while rising pay reduces a residual concern encouraging restraint.
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