FLASH: UK labour market helping the MPC to hike
- The LFS unemployment rate held at 4.3% in August. Another fall to 4.2% could come as soon as next month in what would be an additional hawkish surprise.
- Pay growth beat expectations at 2.1% y-o-y 3mma (ex-bonuses), amid revisions and a better impulse. New data show a less severe slowdown that has already ended.
- A tightening labour market and reduced concerns about pay should help the MPC to hike Bank rate in November. I still see that as the start of a series of hikes.
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