Heteronomics - FLASH: UK labour market melt-up into 2019

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Heteronomics

Philip Rush

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FLASH: UK labour market melt-up into 2019

- The LFS unemployment rate fell to 3.9% on rapid wage growth of 222k. Unusually elevated participation is temporarily exaggerating strength, and its correction could cause a sharper slowdown in the data, irrespective of Brexit.
- Wage growth also exceeded expectations owing to revisions. The increasingly tight labour market appears to have melted-up at the start of 2019.

19/03/2019 2 EN

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Heteronomics

Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.

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Analysts

Philip Rush

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Philip Rush

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- The BoE MPC voted unanimously in favour of no policy changes. Gilt purchases will continue at the same pace with a bias to slow later. Bank rate remains at 0.1%. Banks are instructed to prepare systems for a temporary negative rate environment. - Disagreement centred on whether instructing banks to rectify the operational hurdles to negative rates could occur without markets misconstruing it as an intent to deliver a cut. The tool will not be ready for at least six-months and remains unlikely even later. - A cut would need to be operationally possible, with stimulus needed and no better way ...

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February 4, 2021 February 4, 2021 3 EN

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Italy: Dragging in Draghi

- Political turmoil had returned to Italy, with the President scrambling to find an agreeable new Prime Minister. A resolution in the form of a technocratic government led by former ECB President Mario Draghi now looks set to be formally agreed. - The democratic deficit of another technocratic leader is likely to strengthen populist pressures. However, the postponement of election risk is a relief to markets, especially with such a well-respected figure being invited to the helm.

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February 3, 2021 February 3, 2021 2 EN

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FLASH: UK labour market melt-up into 2019

Riksbank: hopeful for vaccine dividend

BoE: preparing policy like a Scout

Italy: Dragging in Draghi

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