FLASH: UK partially recovers into 2018 yearend
- The UK’s services PMI rebounded by 0.8 points to 51.2 in Dec-18, which was above Consensus expectations but consistent with historical payback after large falls.- I still expect the ONS to report growth in the equivalent services sectors of 0.5% in 4Q18, despite the PMI continuing to point weaker than that.
- Unfavourable rounding helps constrain my forecast for Nov-18 GDP growth to 0.1% m-o-m. Recent downside news in energy output reversed the upside from retail.
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