FLASH: UK PMIs overstate sour start to 2019
- The UK PMIs all fell toward 50 in Jan-19, with the services survey’s 50.1 print over two standard deviations below its post-referendum average.- PMI-based estimates of the ONS services data have been biased to overstate the effect of political uncertainty, so 2019 probably started less sour than suggested.
- I still expect 0.0% m-o-m GDP growth in Dec-18 and 0.3% q-o-q for 4Q18. Growth in 1Q19 may undershoot my 0.4% q-o-q forecast, but should easily exceed the PMIs.
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