Heteronomics - FLASH: UK PMIs weaker than for historical hikes

Report

Heteronomics

Philip Rush

EUR 42.54 For Business Accounts Only

FLASH: UK PMIs weaker than for historical hikes

The UK services PMI increased by 0.4 to 53.6 in September, thereby pointing to 0.4% 3m-o-3m growth in the comparable sectors. Overall, this outcome and current hard data are consistent with Q3 GDP growth at about 0.35% q-o-q.
Even assuming a rebound in the manufacturing PMI, the composite performance is at levels not historically associated with rate hikes. However, slower potential growth appears to mean that this time will be different.

04/10/2017 2 EN

Provider

Heteronomics

Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.

See profile

Analysts

Philip Rush

Other Reports from Heteronomics

Philip Rush

Philip Rush

Riksbank: hopeful for vaccine dividend

- The Riksbank has announced no monetary policy changes, as expected. However, a relatively hawkish tone is created by GDP growth upgrades. We see downside risk to the more resilient global picture, which relies on a vaccination dividend. - Any sense that the vaccination rollout is delayed or offers limited protection to new and more virulent strains of Covid19 will return us to a scenario where the need for monetary policy stimuli increases.

Free Trial

February 10, 2021 February 10, 2021 3 EN

Philip Rush

Philip Rush

BoE: preparing policy like a Scout

- The BoE MPC voted unanimously in favour of no policy changes. Gilt purchases will continue at the same pace with a bias to slow later. Bank rate remains at 0.1%. Banks are instructed to prepare systems for a temporary negative rate environment. - Disagreement centred on whether instructing banks to rectify the operational hurdles to negative rates could occur without markets misconstruing it as an intent to deliver a cut. The tool will not be ready for at least six-months and remains unlikely even later. - A cut would need to be operationally possible, with stimulus needed and no better way ...

Free Trial

February 4, 2021 February 4, 2021 3 EN

Philip Rush

Philip Rush

Italy: Dragging in Draghi

- Political turmoil had returned to Italy, with the President scrambling to find an agreeable new Prime Minister. A resolution in the form of a technocratic government led by former ECB President Mario Draghi now looks set to be formally agreed. - The democratic deficit of another technocratic leader is likely to strengthen populist pressures. However, the postponement of election risk is a relief to markets, especially with such a well-respected figure being invited to the helm.

Free Trial

February 3, 2021 February 3, 2021 2 EN

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

Email Address*

Choose Password* ( 6 or more characters )

Due to regulatory restrictions regarding the distribution of financial research, this report is restricted to a specific region or investor type. Get access to exclusive reports by answering the questions below.

Select your country*

Get financial insights straight to your inbox

By clicking "register" you accept the Terms and Conditions & Privacy Policy

Already on ResearchPool?

Almost there...

Are you a professional investor?

Select your country

REGISTER

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

In order to access this report please create an account.

LOGIN

FLASH: UK PMIs weaker than for historical hikes

Riksbank: hopeful for vaccine dividend

BoE: preparing policy like a Scout

Italy: Dragging in Draghi

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe

ResearchPool Subscriptions

This report is only available to subscribers

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe