FLASH: UK retail beats but weighing on Q1
- Retail sales beat expectations by rising 0.8% m-o-m, as food and non-store sales dominated ongoing weakness on the high street. Q2 should be better as real wages are tracking stronger than overall sales.- March data are likely to be harmed by an early Easter and the cold weather. I pencil in a 1% m-o-m fall, which leaves my Q1 GDP growth forecast tracking close to rounding down from 0.4% q-o-q.
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