FLASH: UK retail resumes a brisk trend pace
- UK retail sales rebounded by 0.9% m-o-m in June as another fall in food sales volumes was more than offset elsewhere. The ONS data are back in line with the median of the numerous other retail surveys.
- The level of retail sales has been trending higher this year at a pace broadly consistent with the previous two years. Growth rates have rebounded accordingly. I continue to expect a slight rise in GDP growth to 0.3% q-o-q in Q2.
- Consumer expectations have been trending toward the lows hit immediately after the referendum, but with little fear of people losing their jobs, households do not appear interested in meaningfully changing their behaviours.
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