FLASH: UK sales stretch surprisingly high in Aug-18
- Retail sales exceeded consensus expectations again by growing 0.3% m-o-m in August, while Jul-18 was revised up to leave the level over 1% above trend. That leaves more room for negative payback later.- The mixture of a slightly better August and anticipation of a slight September fall balance positively for Q3 GDP growth, but my forecast remains at 0.5% q-o-q for Q3. Backloaded weakness should weigh more on Q4, where I still forecast 0.4%.
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