FLASH: UK UR drop achieves 4% forecast early
- The unemployment rate declined from 4.17% to 4.03% in June. That is much better than the 4.2% Consensus and was a larger fall than the BoE and I had forecast.- It looks more like a demand shock than a supply one. It could be hawkish, absent a nearly 1% GBP appreciation, assuming the withdrawal agreement concludes.
- Ex-bonus wage growth met expectations at 2.7% while total pay disappointingly rounded to 2.4%. The underlying monthly pay impulse was as strong as expected.
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