FLASH: UK wages surge beyond BoE forecast in Jul-18
- The unemployment rate remained at 4.03% in July as employment was depressed by the new cohort joining the survey. Bullish trends remain intact.- There was a slight rise in average hours (including relative to usual) as the split-month Easter distortion finished washing out of the data, as I have been expecting.
- Wage growth surged by 0.4% m-o-m to hit 2.9% y-o-y 3mma ex-bonuses, which makes it slightly more bullish than just the hours effect. Pay looks likely to end the year closer to 3.0% than the BoE’s 2.5% August Inflation Report forecast.
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