Philip Rush
EUR 112.40 For Business Accounts Only

Inflation: Apr-19 surge against down-trend

- UK inflation data delivered mixed surprises in Apr-19 as the CPI increased by 21bp to 2.12% and the RPI surged 60bp to 3.04% (index at 288.2).
- Airfares and household energy prices drove the increase, but another disinflationary shock from computer games constrained the CPI.
- An unwinding airfare effect still weighs heavily on my May-19 forecast with the trough in the temporarily broken down-trend occurring in Oct-19 when household energy utility prices seem set to collapse again.

Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.

Philip Rush

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