Politics: unusual UK unity promotes plan B
- The Conservative party and the DUP united in a rare show of support for Theresa May’s Brexit plans by backing her deal, subject to alternative arrangements being included in the Irish backstop.- A state-dependent break clause still looks like the most likely outcome to me, although pressure to include it in the main text makes it less tolerable for the EU. I still see the probabilities of a deal, no deal, and no Brexit as roughly 55:30:15.
- All other amendments were defeated except one expressing opposition to no deal. Unlike the defeated Cooper amendment, it does not change process, although neither fundamentally affects the direction, despite market optimism it would.
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